Decentralized Prediction Market By Market Type (Event-Based, Outcome-Based, Information-Based), By Accessibility (Open Markets, Invitational Markets, Institutional Markets), By Interface (Web-based platforms, Mobile Applications, Decentralized Applications), By Purpose (Speculation, Informed Decision Making, Social Utility), Global Market Size, Segmental analysis, Regional Overview, Company share analysis, Leading Company Profiles And Market Forecast, 2025 – 2035

Industry Outlook

The Decentralized Prediction market accounted for USD 1.4 Billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 95.5 Billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of around 46.8% between 2025 and 2035. A decentralized prediction market is an online platform that allows users to make speculations about any future event using blockchain technology. They provide a network without a centralized authority to support transactions in various markets through smart contracts. Users can make wagers on subject-specific election predictions, sports, or financial markets using shares that reflect the wager. Such a decentralized system records transactions and outcomes in a blockchain, ensuring transparency, security, and resistance to censorship. Decentralized platforms eliminate intermediaries, increasing access for global users but reducing costs compared to traditional prediction markets.

Report Scope:

Market Dynamics

Leveraging blockchain ensures transparency, immutability, and security, making decentralized platforms more trustworthy.

The use of blockchain in a decentralized prediction market provides transparency, immutability, and security, making the platforms more trusted than traditional systems which drives the market growth. Every transaction done via blockchain technology is documented on a distributed ledger. It cannot be altered once it is noted in the system, thus rendering it impossible to tamper with or alter the outcome. This transparency increases the confidence of the user because anyone in the network can verify and audit the results.

In addition, the chances of bias and human errors are lower because smart contracts can execute transactions automatically. According to the European Union Blockchain Observatory report, 84% of blockchain users reported that technology increases transparency and trust in digital transactions. This points to the ever-growing adoption of blockchain technology in different markets. 

The growth of DeFi enhances the appeal of decentralized prediction markets as users seek decentralized financial solutions.

Decentralized finance growth makes decentralized prediction markets more appealing since users are now seeking decentralized financial solutions. DeFi applications, built on blockchain technology, provide open, transparent, and permissionless financial services without intermediaries and at a lower cost. As DeFi grows, users are attracted to decentralized prediction markets for the same reasons: lower fees, greater autonomy, and enhanced privacy.

It offers the opportunity for users to foresee future events without having to rely on central parties who have control over their flows of investments. Through mid-2021, BIS reported that the value locked in DeFi projects exceeded $80 billion, marking a high level of uptake in decentralized financial solutions. The adoption of DeFi consequently affects the growth and attraction of decentralized prediction markets.

The lack of clear regulations surrounding decentralized prediction markets hampers widespread adoption.

There is no clear rule or regulation about decentralized prediction markets, and this alone has been a major hurdle for their acceptance. It becomes extremely challenging to create regulations for user safety, fraud prevention, and dispute resolution in decentralized prediction markets when there is no central authority to oversee operations.

Users, including institutional investors, are alarmed by all of this ambiguity, particularly when they fear becoming embroiled in legal dispute compliance. Without clear rules, decentralized prediction markets are vulnerable to government suppression or litigation uncertainty, which greatly constrains their growth and adoption. Beyond providing an open conduit for nefarious actors, a lack of controls can also cause serious harm to public confidence and deter mainstream participation.

Decentralized platforms can target specific, underserved markets such as environmental, political, or niche sports predictions.

Decentralized prediction markets present a significant opportunity to target underserved sectors like environmental, political, or niche sports predictions. The majority of current platforms favor typical occurrences that steer clear of specific problems. Flexible, user-driven decentralized platforms, address particular subjects that could never be covered by standard platforms, such as the consequences of climate change, election results, and other sports-related issues that only a select few would care about.

This will attract users in specific sectors, make the community more diverse, and keep it engaged. Catering to niche markets would be the difference that decentralized prediction platforms would make, by expanding user bases and tapping growing interest in socially relevant topics or areas that are less covered.

Partnerships with IoT or AI systems for real-time event tracking in areas like weather or stock predictions can attract new users.

Partnerships with IoT (Internet of Things) and AI (artificial intelligence) systems present a significant opportunity for decentralized prediction markets by enabling real-time event tracking and analysis. More accurate data input and prediction models would result from the use of sensors from Internet of Things devices that provide real-time weather forecasts and even stock market movement predictions.

With AI models of datasets from such sources, the market's efficiency may be further enhanced. The adoption of these technologies enables decentralized platforms to provide much more interactive, real-time interfaces of betting to their end-users and attract the attention of those who look for timely data-driven insights into decisions.

Industry Experts Opinion

“Decentralized prediction markets help eliminate centralized control and censorship, fostering a fairer and more trustworthy environment. He adds that participants' predictions are more reliable since they are based on market-driven consensus rather than subject to external influence​.”

• Dr. Pascal Bouvry, Professor at the University of Luxembourg

“Decentralized prediction markets are uniquely transparent, with all transactions recorded on the blockchain, ensuring openness and verifiability. This transparency allows markets to function with greater trust, as the process cannot be easily manipulated or censored.”

• Guneet Kaur, a blockchain researcher at Gate.io

Segment Analysis

Based on the Market type, the decentralized prediction market has been classified into Event-Based, Outcome-Based, and Information-Based markets. The event-based prediction market is the most prevalent segment of the decentralized prediction market. Users predict real-life events like an election, a sports game, and geopolitical events, among others. Because these kinds of events are closely watched in real life, users are quite interested in this subject. Their results are observable and verifiable, and their advancements are time-sensitive. Event-based markets' primary advantage is their instantaneous results, which make them profitable and a popular option. Furthermore, because these markets combine the expertise of numerous bright minds, they can attract participants from a variety of groups. As a result, they are primarily applicable in everyday life and can be directly used in that specific application, making them a significant part of decentralized prediction platforms.

Based on Accessibility, the decentralized prediction market has been classified into Open Markets, Invitational Markets, and Institutional Markets. In the decentralized prediction market, open markets are the most prominent. These markets are accessible to all who have an internet connection and a blockchain wallet; anybody in the world can participate, insofar as participation is open rather than by invitation or institutional sponsorship. The higher the heterogeneity of users in a market, the better. Open markets allow decentralized structures to take over blockchain, thereby eliminating restrictions in geographic or financial capacities that constitute the traditional system. They become increasingly dominant as a result of their access and complete engagement.

Regional Analysis

The North American decentralized prediction market is increasing rapidly, with the majority of this growth taking place in the U.S. The region boasts notable blockchain technology adoption, technical infrastructure, and significant growing interest in decentralized finance platforms. The United States has a significant number of blockchain developers and early adopters and is very fertile ground for decentralized prediction markets. Further, regulatory clarity is still in its developing stages, and therefore, it provides a stable foundation for the operation of such platforms compared to the rest of the world. As it moves closer to blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies, Canada is also contributing to this expansion. North America is the leader in this field because of its sophisticated financial institutions and widespread internet use, which support the development of decentralized prediction markets.

Innovations in the United States primarily come from the decentralized prediction market, supported by the advanced blockchain ecosystem of the country and the strong interest in the decentralized finance sphere. There is an evolution in the development of regulation, particularly on cryptocurrency and blockchain, with some states becoming friendlier to blockchain, like Wyoming and Texas. On the other hand, an unclear federal regulatory landscape doesn't seem to be much of a deterrent to an otherwise strong venture capital ecosystem that continues to fund blockchain and DeFi startups. These days, event-based prediction markets are also quite popular, particularly in sports and politics, where users are interested in using the decentralized platform to improve forecast accuracy and earn more revenue. This dynamic development puts the United States foremost in the world in a decentralized prediction market.

Europe Decentralized prediction markets are slowly increasing due to progressive blockchain regulations and a strong innovation culture. Among Western European countries, the UK, Germany, and Switzerland lead the pack concerning blockchain adoption. Such conducive environments breed decentralized platforms. The UK has brought about legal clarity for digital assets through the development of a regulatory framework for them. Decentralized finance solutions such as prediction markets and event-driven financial speculation, in particular, capture the interest of more European users. The region has excellent internet penetration, as well as a rapidly growing group of tech developers and investors working on blockchain innovations.

Decentralized prediction markets are now gaining traction in Germany, which is very popular for its technological innovations and clarity in regulations in the blockchain space. Germany has been quite active in integrating blockchain into its financial and legal systems as the government recognizes the potential of decentralized technologies. In the country, there are more blockchain start-ups, and Berlin has evolved to be a hub for fintech and cryptocurrency companies, thus creating an environment that is conducive to decentralized platforms. A clear approach from Germany towards the regulation of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology promotes the emergence of decentralized prediction markets since it will provide more legal certainty for firms. High internet penetration, a solid financial infrastructure, and a tech-savvy population increase the market.

Competitive Landscape

The decentralized prediction market is emerging, with many platforms offering different kinds of proposals. The very first on the list is Augur, which continues to be at the forefront of decentralized prediction markets, self-service tools for trading on results of events. Other strong sites, such as Polymarket and Gnosis, offer reliable prediction platforms with excellent user interfaces and correct market prices. Corporate and consumer prediction markets are better explained by Omen and Foresight, primarily because of their decentralized nature.

Augur Turbo intends to enhance scalability and transaction rates. BetSwap is designed to trade bets between prediction markets, and two other platforms, Hegic and Hedget, primarily exist for options within this niche. Numerous decentralized Oracle solutions are provided in DIA, Polkadot, and Chainlink, and this helps increase accuracy for the opportunities in the prediction platforms.

Decentralized Prediction Market, Company Shares Analysis, 2024

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Recent Developments:

• In November 2024, Cardano's Bodega is entering the decentralized prediction market, offering a more scalable and efficient platform compared to competitors like Polymarket, by leveraging Cardano's blockchain for secure and transparent event prediction
• In August 2024Drift Protocol is set to launch its decentralized prediction marketplace, enabling users to trade event outcomes on Solana's blockchain. The platform will focus on major events like the U.S. Presidential election, offering flexible asset trading.

Report Coverage:

By Market Type

• Event-Based
• Outcome-Based
• Information-Based

By Accessibility

• Open Markets
• Invitational Markets
• Institutional Markets

By Interface

• Web-based platforms
• Mobile Applications
• Decentralized Applications

By Purpose

• Speculation
• Informed Decision Making
• Social Utility

By Region

North America

• U.S.
• Canada

Europe

• Germany
• France
• U.K.
• Italy
• Spain
• Netherlands
• Switzerland
• Ukraine
• Poland
• Rest of Europe

Asia Pacific

• China
• Japan
• India
• Australia
• South Korea
• Vietnam
• Thailand
• Indonesia
• Philippines
• Singapore
• Rest of Asia Pacific

Latin America

• Brazil
• Mexico
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Venezuela
• Rest of Latin America

MEA (Middle East and Africa)

• GCC
• Türkiye
• South Africa
• Nigeria
• Rest of Middle-East and Africa

List of Companies:

• Augur
• Polymarket
• Gnosis
• Omen
• Foresight
• Veil
• DIA
• Market Protocol
• Polkadot
• Augur Turbo
• BetSwap
• DappRadar
• Hegic
• Hedget
• Vee
• Chainlink

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)